A New Wave of Lithuanian Tech Acorns: Which Ones Will Grow into Oaks?

In the first half of 2026, as many as 685 new acorns were established in Lithuania, compared with 749 throughout the whole of 2025. During the same period, 74 acorns were deregistered, compared with 240 in all of 2025. The pace of new business formation has therefore clearly accelerated: for every acorn deregistered this year, more than seven new ones have already been established, while in 2025 the ratio was approximately 1:3.

In our analysis and index, “acorns” refer to startups with significant innovation-driven growth potential. Startups are the seedlings of our country’s economy: as they grow into strong oaks, they create added value and make a significant contribution to the state budget through the taxes they pay.

We assessed companies operating in the digital technology and software development sectors. These sectors provide services or develop products for virtually all other service and industrial sectors, which is why we consider them one of the key drivers of the country’s technological development.

Half-year results are encouraging

This is particularly encouraging following the slowdown in 2025. Last year, the index stood at 2,300 points, declining by 14 points over the year. This indicated that the tax value generated per employee remained largely unchanged and, in our assessment, employees faced greater pressure to achieve stronger results, while employers had to place greater emphasis on cost control and financial sustainability.

As many as 87% of the acorns established in 2026 chose the small partnership (MB) legal form. We see this as a cautious and pragmatic model for starting a business. If successful, some of these companies may choose the private limited liability company (UAB) legal form, opening up broader opportunities to attract capital and expand their teams and businesses.

Today, around 54% of Acorns LT acorns are small partnerships (MB), while 42% are private limited liability companies (UAB). However, UABs account for as much as 95% of all taxes paid within this segment. According to our calculations, if by 2027 at least 30% of acorns currently operating as small partnerships were to grow to the level of UABs and generate at least 10% of the current average taxes paid by UABs, the total amount of taxes paid by the sector could increase by approximately 6.5%.

In 2025, the revenue generated by acorns amounted to approximately 5.3% of Lithuania’s GDP. According to our modelled scenario, if at least 30% of small partnerships significantly expanded their operations, their additional contribution to the economy could reach €430 million, or 0.5% of GDP.

Following the logic that properly managed artificial intelligence solutions could serve as highly effective operational tools for teams of just one or a few people, our scenario of an additional contribution to GDP could become a reality.

This also highlights the significant untapped potential. Some small partnerships today essentially represent the workplace of a single specialist. AI is likely to reduce demand for simpler digitalisation services, but at the same time, a considerably larger market is opening up for high-value-added technologies and solutions.

The largest share of taxes is paid by acorns registered in Vilnius – 45.9%, followed by Kaunas at 19.6%, Šiauliai at 1.06%, and Klaipėda at 0.94%. They are followed by Alytus, Panevėžys, Pasvalys, Palanga and Druskininkai.

On average, a single acorn in Vilnius paid €139,000 in taxes, compared with €144,000 in Kaunas and €80,000 in Šiauliai.

The ten highest tax-paying acorns account for a quarter of the segment’s total taxes. The concentration is even more pronounced across the broader sample: just 2.9%, or 198 acorns, account for 80% of all taxes paid by the sector.

In the first half of 2026, the Acorns LT Index reached 2,651 points – 15% higher than at the end of 2025. The index tracks changes in the average level of employment-related taxes paid per employee. Compared with the 2019 baseline, it has already increased 2.6-fold.

ACORNS LT INDEX

Acorns LT index methodology

To assess the maturity of the sector, Aneli Capital, together with the open data platform Okredo, began calculating the Acorns LT Index in autumn 2025.

As of June 2026, the sample consists of 6,771 companies operating in the digital technology and software development sectors. The index assesses the employment-related taxes paid by these companies per employee.

The index includes companies established between 1990 and the end of June 2026 that paid taxes and submitted financial data to the Centre of Registers. The index is calculated using a weighted average method, with 2019 as the base year.

Following a change in the classification of economic activities at the turn of 2025–2026, the composition of companies included in the index also changed: compared with the original sample, the number of companies decreased by 862.

2026 forecast

Based on the results of the first half of the year, we forecast that in 2026, acorns are likely to pay approximately 11% more in taxes than in 2025. Taxes paid by Vilnius acorns could increase by 14%, Šiauliai by 20%, Alytus by 12%, Palanga by 26%, and Pasvalys by as much as 55%.

In 2025, the average annual revenue of acorns grew by 12%. We forecast that it could increase by a further approximately 10% in 2026.

For illustrative purposes, if we were to hypothetically value all acorns using the same 4x sales multiple, their combined value would reach €20 billion, or 23.5% of Lithuania’s GDP. This is not a market valuation, but it clearly illustrates the scale of economic wealth that could be created by growing more Lithuanian technology leaders.

There is an economic basis for this: in 2025, the average net profit margin of acorns stood at 12%, while return on equity (ROE) reached 40%. The average debt-to-equity ratio decreased by 0.03 points to 0.60. The strongest capital structures were recorded among acorns in Panevėžys (0.41), smaller Lithuanian cities (0.44), Šiauliai (0.50), and Kaunas (0.55).

Overall, in 2026, we are seeing a new wave of technology entrepreneurship in Lithuania. What matters most now is not the size of this wave, but how many of these acorns we will be able to grow into oaks.

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Fund management company – Aneli capital UAB, operating in accordance with the Law on Collective Investment Entities for Informed Investors of the Republic of Lithuania and permit No. 16 issued by the Bank of Lithuania on 3 September, 2018. Currently manages two funds.

Business angels fund II IISUTIB operates according to the closed-end investment company activity permit No.15 issued by the Bank of Lithuania on 22 October, 2018. The fund is partially financed by the European Regional Development Fund for 2014-2020, administered by UAB Ilte, and fully invested in parri-passu basis with private investors.

Aneli Venture Capital fund IISUTIB operates according to the closed-end investment company activity permit issued by the Bank of Lithuania on 5 November, 2025. The Fund invests under the financial instrument "Venture Capital Fund III", co-funded by the European Union from the Innovation Promotion Fund managed by ILTE, supported by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and private investors.